What should the Oilers do this offseason?
Hello everybody. It’s been awhile. The Oilers season has concluded. Thankfully, unlike last season, they surprisingly made it to the Western Conference Final. However, they had a hard time matching up against a young, energetic Avalanche squad. Despite that, and all the jokes the rest of the NHL are making, it was a very successful season. In a season where we were 16-5-0, and then fell off the face of the earth with a 2-11-2 skid, it really seemed like this Oilers team was going to miss the playoffs. Ken Holland made a couple of big changes that turned around the season. He signed controversial forward Evander Kane to a one-year contract and *finally* made the decision to let go of Dave Tippett and Jim Playfair. In their place came in Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. The team responded fantasically as they went 26-9-3 under them. Holland also made the trade to bring in hometown boy Dman Brett Kulak from Montreal. Kulak was someone that I previously talked about. Now, that this season has concluded. It’s time to look at this offseason and figure out what they should do. I had plans to do this last year, with the article ready to go. But, I just didn’t like how it turned out so I didn’t end up publishing it. I’m much more prepared in what I want to talk about this time around. Free Agency is about a month away and it’s time to see what players the Oilers could look at. (All charts are from Evolving Hockey/J-Fresh Hockey. I highly recommend you check them out.)
Roster Projection:
Most of the Oilers roster are signed onto next season. The team has roughly $7 Million to spend on free agents. Not a lot for the amount of Free Agents we gotta re-sign but we’ll get to that soon. Currently, this is what the projected roster is so far.
Forwards:
XXX-McDavid-XXX
Hyman-Draisaitl-XXX
XXX-RNH-Kassian
Foegele-Ryan-Shore
Currently, there are 4 spots open but these include RFAs Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and McLeod with Kane as our biggest UFA Forward. With the very limited cap space, you may wonder how that is even possible. I’ll touch on that in the trades section.
Defence:
Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
The defence as of right now is pretty similar to the one that ended the season with the exception of Broberg in for Kulak. It’s not the best and it’s not wise for the Oilers to have a 4.5M PP QB on the third pair in Barrie, when they got Bouchard and existing cap issues.
Goalies:
Skinner
Smith*
Now, there have been rumors about Mike Smith considering retirement . If that’s true, that would be very crucial for the Oilers as they would have an extra 2.2M to spend on a goaltender. Mike Smith is at 40 years of age, and had numerous injury issues this past season. It may be time for him to hang up the skates (or I guess pads) for good. Stuart Skinner had a great taste of NHL action this year and performed well in Bakersfield. He is here to stay and make the team. Whether as a backup or a 1B in a tandem.
The Free Agents
Before we look ahead to the NHL Free Agent market, we have to look at the Oilers upcoming RFAs/UFAs. A lot of these guys, especially the UFAs, won’t be back.
The For Sure Goners: Kyle Turris, Colton Sceviour, Josh Archibald, Kris Russell, Derick Brassard and Mikko Koskinen I’d safely bet will NOT return to the Oilers. Kyle Turris hasn’t played since March 5 due to injury and he’s only scored 9 points as an Oiler in 50ish games. He will probably retire within weeks. Colton Sceviour may return on an AHL deal, but not on an NHL contract. He played 35 games as an Oiler collecting 5 points. Ironically, Sceviour was actually a reliable defensive player during his time here but his last game in the NHL was in March so I don’t think he’ll be back on the main squad. Josh Archibald had abysmal numbers and makes way too much at 1.5m. He doesn’t provide any offence and for a six game period in the playoffs, he was out there for at least 1 goal against even with bare playing time. This is someone who the Oilers should not bring back in anyway shape or form. Derick Brassard was a deadline acquisition who played 1 playoff game. His first two games he played well with JP and RNH, but they got split up after a 9-5 loss to Calgary and he fell apart after that. He isn’t coming back. Kris Russell hasn’t been all too bad the past few years and he’s a serviceable 6-7th Dman. However, we have a logjam of LHD and he just isn’t a fit here anymore. Mikko wasn’t coming back regardless how his season went and he’s reported to have a deal in Switzerland. I loved Koskinen here and I wish him the best.
The Big Maybes:
Marody/Benson/Perlini: The Bakersfield Condors had a bit of a weird year. With Colin Chaulk coming in to replace Jay Woodcroft, you’d expect to see a shift in coaching/style of play. While I didn’t watch many Condor games this year, it appears they still held their own with Chaulk. Cooper Marody was once again over PPG in the AHL but he only got one game with the Oilers this season. With him being a group 6 UFA, I’d expect him to leave the organization as we saw Josh Currie and Joe Gambardella do the same. I don’t think there’s a spot on the NHL roster anymore for Marody and I hope he finds success somewhere else. Tyler Benson is looking like a Nick Petan/Jeremy Bracco. A high end skilled player taken high in the draft who can’t find his footing in the NHL. He really lacks foot speed and while I think his playmaking is exceptional, he couldn’t even crack a Jay Woodcroft squad up here. I still adore Benson, especially since he’s a hometown kid. But I think he’s due to leave. He’s only a RFA though so who knows what happens. Brendan Perlini is the most optimistic guy in the world and seems like a great locker room presence. He has a great shot but that’s about it. I don’t know if Tippett recruited him because he’s a former Coyote or if it was Holland because he’s a former Red Wing. But, he only played 2 games under Woodcroft in the NHL. Now, he was PPG in the AHL and with his RFA rights, I could see him signing an AHL deal with the Condors but I highly doubt it.
Jesse Puljujarvi: Jesse Puljujarvi. The media hates him. The fans love him. Sure, while he may not be the best finisher. Jesse does so many other things right that goes past the “old-man’s” head. He is so good at suppressing scoring chances and goals against and every line he’s on, the players get elevated and that line dominates 5v5. He started out the year well but then COVID happened and he started to fumble. Add to the high ankle sprain injury he suffered in February against the Ducks and you can see why he had a hard time producing offensively. There are so much rumors surrounding him whether it’s a trade or a show me contract (1 year). As much as I love and want Jesse to stay…. when there’s smoke… there’s fire and I don’t think we’ll see him in an Oiler uniform come training camp. I still have hope though he re-signs. I guess we’ll see.
Evander Kane: Now, this is where it gets interesting. We don’t have the cap space to re-sign him. He was a great fit beside McDavid, as you probably could of tell by Stauffer tweeting about him every single second. In a scenario where his contract is reinstated by the league, Kane would have his 7M AAV for 3 years back on the books with SJ. By the sounds of it, this could certainly happen and may be very beneficial for the Oilers. We know San Jose will not keep him around. My prediction is that EDM gets SJ to keep a certain amount of Kane’s contract (2million) and the Oilers send a sweetener to make that happen.
You’re Coming Back:
Ryan McLeod: What a season for young Ryan McLeod. He proved to be such an effective defensive forward in his first NHL stint. Every game, his offensive creativity and confidence grows as well. He’s gonna be a special player. Around a year or so I projected McLeod to be a good 3rd line centre. I can see him being an excellent 2nd line forward now if he continues on the path he’s on. He’ll also be very cheap! 2 years 1.25MAAV is my prediction. What a player.
Kailer Yamamoto: Yamamoto had a slow start to the season but picked it up later on when the trio of Kane, McDavid and himself exploded in the last two months of the season. He had a decent showing in the playoffs going 0.5ppg. His season was cut short after sustaining a concussion in Game 2 of the WCF on a very egregious check from Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog. It’s openly stated the Oilers prefer Kailer over Jesse and while still being 23 years old, Yamamoto still has a lot of potential like Jesse. They SHOULD keep both but alas, it seems like one is going and that will likely be Puljujarvi. Yamamoto’s ballpark contract should be around 3 years give or take around 2.75M AAV.
Brett Kulak: Kulak was someone who I wanted for a very long time and like I mentioned, I wrote about him before. The cost at the deadline was a 2nd and William Lagesson and it’s worked out outstandingly so far. In the playoffs, his xGF% was 52.77% with a GF% of 63.16. He’s always been great in his own zone and his underlying numbers back it up. Along with being from the Edmonton area, it’s no question the Oilers need to lock him up. 3-4 years, 2MAAV. Book it.
Free Agency
Forwards:
Andrei Kuzmenko: Kuzmenko is a very highly touted Russian FA. As it appears, the finalists for his services are down to the Oilers and the Canucks. Based off Ken and Dan Milstein’s (Kuzmenko’s agent) reputation, along with the chance with playing with either McDavid/Draisaitl. I’d bet on Kuzmenko signing a one year ELC here. He had 53p in 45 KHL games and projects to be a middle 6 winger.
Tyler Ennis: Oiler fans know Tyler Ennis well. We picked him up at the 2020 trade deadline and was a decent fit here. The boys love him and he’s a hometown boy. He almost signed a PTO here before going back to Ottawa. He’s still a solid bottom6 depth option and I’m sure if Ken called his agent he’d love to be back. For whatever reason, Tippett didn’t like his game that much. He would do well under Jay’s watch and would be a smart, cheap, and effective signing. 1 year. 800k.
Josh Leivo: Leivo has been an up and down player in his career. He was a constant scratch on the Leafs and then took off with Vancouver. In 2019/20 on a line with Bo Horvat, he was 0.5ppg collecting 19 points thru the club’s 38 first games. He then fractured his kneecap and hasn’t been the same since then. He had a great year in Carolina’s farm system and this would be an excellent bet to make if I’m Holland. If he fails, he provides the Condors with an excellent offensive game and he can be the first guy up when injury happens. This is basically the Brendan Perlini and the Seth Griffith signing of 2022. 1 year. 750k 2 way.
Defence:
I do NOT see the Oilers making any changes whatsoever to their defence. They need to use the cap space on goaltending. As well from it sounds like, the Oilers are simply okay with bringing back what they got with a few changes. Now, I don’t agree to this and I can obviously just do "sign Player X for 5 years 5M AAV” but I want to keep this realistic. Consider Brett Kulak your “Dman UFA” signing.
Goalies:
Now, here’s the one area I am curious to see how the Oilers address this offseason. This is entirely depending on Mike Smith retiring or not. It sounds like it’s a legit possibility so a goaltender has to be on the list. However, there is one goalie this year that I think could be a great choice for the club.
JACK CAMPBELL:
Campbell is very interesting to gauge. Although he had a great win to loss ratio, going 31-9-6. It appears he played below average when his team played strongly in front of him. If you date back to the 20/21 season however, Jack played quite strong for a Leafs team that wasn’t the best in front of him. Analytically, his GSAx this season was at -2.3 which isn’t very good. On the contrary, his GSAx in 20/21 was 8.2 which are close to elite numbers. Another weird part of Campbell is that while his GSAx was low, his GSAA was very high at 10.1 according to HockeyReference. There will be a ton of suitors for Jack and I think there’s a likelihood he signs here. The Oilers badly need someone who can carry them deep into the playoffs and Campbell has shown well in his time in the playoffs. He also knows players on the team such as Ceci, Barrie (potentially) and Hyman which would give him some comfortability in the locker room. Campbell is also only 30 years old so he’s still young enough where a mid-term deal won’t hurt your team. Add to the fact, he’s just one hell of a dude. If you love Zach Hyman, you’re going to love Jack Campbell even more. If all is said and done, Jack Campbell’s contract in Edmonton should around a 4 year term worth $20 million, an AAV of $5 million.
Internal Options
As always, teams fill holes with young players on ELCs/cheap deals. The Oilers have a bunch of them who can make a big impact in the NHL.
Markus Niemelainen: Niemelainen showed off his big body this season. In 20 games, he had 82 hits. That’s an average of 4.1 a game. He also recently signed a 2 year extension and requires waivers next year. He’s a cheap dman who will be the 7th dman on the roster. There may still be some high end 3rd pair potential there but a 6’6 towering 7th D isn’t so bad either.
Philip Broberg: Broberg was drafted 3 years ago and now is the time to finally make his impact in the NHL. He played decent with a small showing this season but now is the chance for him to make his mark as a full time NHLer, more likely than not on the third pair. Who knows. Maybe he’ll become a Oscar Klefbom 2.0 for the club.
Dylan Holloway: Holloway was a major contributor in the Condors playoff run where he was easily their best player. Being both a centre/winger, he’ll provide Jay Woodcroft a plethora of options come the Fall. He did play 1 playoff game but he didn’t play much. He did, however, end up with a 100GF% so that’s cool. I’m fully expecting Holloway to be in contention for the Calder Memorial next season.
Stuart Skinner: Skinner, no matter what, WILL BE on this team. He has a cheap cap hit and he requires waivers. He’s been in Bakersfield for the last 4 seasons and he’s improved each year. With the Oilers this past season, in 13 games he had a 0.913SV% and a 2.62GAA. His GSAA was 2.1 and a GSAx of 1.0. He’s ready for the big times and should be here for many more years to come.
Trades/Retirement
To stay cap compliant and based off potential rumours, this is my best guess at what the Oilers will try to do.
Mike Smith retires:
Everyday, the Mike Smith rumors are growing and it seems like he will end up retiring for good. The 2.2m in cap freed up for the Oilers is very beneficial.
Zack Kassian trade:
Ottawa acquires Zack Kassian, Raphael Lavoie and a 3rd round pick in exchange for future considerations:
This trade allows Ottawa to get to the cap floor while taking on a pick and a prospect to do so. Lavoie has middle 6 potential but the Oilers are stacked on winger prospects. I believe he would be great trade bait for them to get rid of a contract via trade. The 3rd round pick is an extra sweetener. Kassian ever since signing his 4x3.2m extension has been horrible to say the least. He’s a 4th line winger making middle 6 money. Along with his 24 points in his last 85 games, this is a contract the Oilers NEED to get rid of. In Ottawa, Kassian can be the new “Chris Neil” there protecting all the young kids. I think both sides benefit from this well.
Tyson Barrie trade:
Seattle acquires Tyson Barrie in exchange for a third round pick.
Barrie is somebody I’d bet my house on to be dealt. There was never, ever a good reason for him to even be back here when we had Evan Bouchard waiting in the pipeline. While I admire the hell out of the person Tyson is, he isn’t a fit for this team and makes way too much money as a PPQB 3RHD. In Seattle, he can be a top 4 dman there while getting significant PP time. He would also be closer to home.
Warren Foegele trade:
Philadelphia acquires Warren Foegele in exchange for a mid round pick.
I like Warren a lot. I do think he’s a bit expensive and he’ll probably be playing 4th line for us. Philly is a place where he could easily get 2nd line ice time and he plays a very John Tortorella like game (Torts is considered the front runner there). 2.75M cleared up that easily.
Jesse Puljujarvi trade:
Carolina acquires Jesse Puljujarvi in exchange for RFA Martin Necas.
Both these players are in similar positions. Both are RFAs, are being bombarded by the media and could use a change of scenary. While I do think Necas has more potential, all Jesse really needs to do is fix up his finishing. He’ll also be reunited with Aho from the 2016 WJC days. Necas is still a pretty solid player in return and this is one of the few 1 for 1 deals I’m willing to make. Necas extends here for 3 years around 3MAAV.
Final Roster
The final cap space amount rounds out to 284k with Klefbom on LTIR. Barely any space but as the season progresses, you usually have a little bit more for the deadline. When put together, the roster we see is full of speed and skill (the Colorado method as Bob Stauffer always puts out there). For the old school fans, you still have your physical players/veterans who give it their all every shift. The forwards I’d argue are even better from the previous season while defence is minimally improved with Broberg and Niemelainen replacing Barrie and Kris Russell. The goaltending is the biggest area of improvement and we’ll see just how good a tandem of Campbell/Skinner do.
Roster:
Kane-McDavid-Necas
Kuzmenko-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Hyman-RNH-Holloway
Ennis-McLeod-Ryan
Extras: Shore and Leivo
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Keith-Broberg
Extra: Niemelainen
Campbell
Skinner
All in all. This team is an improvement over last season’s group. They should also still be the top of the Pacific. If Jay Woodcroft can take a team that had 23 wins when he came in to 49, hitting 50+ in 22/23 wouldn’t be all too surprising and extremely doable. We’ll see what happens this offseason, either Ken Holland screws up royally or he makes smart decisions and prepares for a team that is on the cusp of winning the Stanley Cup.
You can find me at @Shae_Nuge93 on all things Oilers.